Want to know the most mortgage-stressed major community in Canada? How about which neighbourhood sleeps the best because most people’s mortgages are in the rear window?
If so, then Prof. Andy Yan, director of The City Program at Simon Fraser University and part of the Balanced Supply Node of the Collaborative Housing Research Network (CHRN), is the person to ask.
Prof. Yan’s research involves collecting and analyzing reams of data for connections between housing and other factors such as the status of mortgage payments across Canada.
He can turn, twist and shake out information from voluminous spreadsheets to provide the most revealing information about how cities, and even neighbourhoods, are weathering the approximate 4% rise in interest rates Canadians have experienced over the past year.
By the way, in answer to the first question, Milton, Ont., is the most mortgaged city in Canada in communities of 100,000 residents or more with 79 per cent of homeowners still paying off their residence. Calgary sits at 65 per cent, Toronto at 57 per cent, and Vancouver at 50 per cent, according to new census analysis by Prof Yan, who is also an adjunct professor in urban studies.
“It goes into the story of housing in our cities — those that are housing secure, at least at this level of mortgage-free homes, and those that aren’t — and actually how different they are across different cities,” he said. “At the same time, it also tells us the possible scale of municipalities that are sensitive towards increasing interest rates, and where to watch for increased amounts of housing precarity and vulnerability.”
When Prof. Yan tweaks his spreadsheet, he can come up with an analysis of cities of 100,000 or more households, versus residents, which narrows the selection to the very largest municipalities.
Within Ontario, and including regional governments, Brampton comes in just behind Milton with 77 per cent holding mortgages, followed by Peel Region at 68 per cent, Durham Region at 67 per cent, Halton Region at 65 per cent and Waterloo and Simcoe regions at 63 per cent. Yan said the pattern reflects the movement of new Canadians and young people with newer mortgages out of Toronto, as housing prices became unaffordable, to an ever-enlarging ring of suburbs.
Professor reveals mortgage-stressed communities
